What a steady third quarter could mean for Qatar real estate in 2027

Qatar’s property market held its ground in the third quarter of 2026. The Ministry of Justice registered 1,808 sales worth QAR 5.6 billion between 1 July and 30 September,¹ 8% more by value than a year earlier.² Villa prices eased slightly, land prices rose on the year, and rents held flat on slightly lower volumes.

That resilience came in a difficult quarter. The conflict in the region has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and in September the US Federal Reserve and the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) each raised interest rates by 25 basis points.³ Yet real estate activities grew 11.0% year on year in the second quarter, the fastest of any non-hydrocarbon sector,⁴ and registered demand stayed broad and led by households.

Our analysis suggests 2027 could bring a recovery in two steps: activity holding close to this year’s pace until export routes reopen, then strengthening in the second half as exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) resume and the budget returns to surplus.⁵ The pace will be set largely outside the property market, by shipping, US interest rates and the restart of gas exports.

This report sets out what moved in the third quarter and what it could mean for 2027. It covers sales, where and what buyers bought, prices, leasing and rents, offices and shops, indicative yields, and visitors and hotels, and it closes with our view of the forces that will shape 2027. It describes the market as a whole and does not value any asset; the yields it shows are indicative only (see sidebar, “About the research”).

About the research

• Sales and prices. Ministry of Justice open-data registration files, July to September 2026 and 2025.
• Leases and rents. Aqarat’s Qatar Real Estate Platform: 32,003 lease contracts.
• Asking terms. 21,130 listings on various online portals, 6–7 October 2026.
• Visitors and economy. Qatar Tourism’s dashboards, official Qatari releases, the World Bank, the US Federal Reserve and the US Energy Information Administration.

Sales and prices cover registrations from 1 July to 30 September 2026, at share value (the consideration paid). Doha’s districts were assigned to zones by number or name, placing 98% of its value. Prices and rents are medians, unadjusted for size or condition; medians on fewer than 40 contracts are omitted. Yields are gross and indicative only. The outlook is our judgment, not a forecast.

Sales ran ahead of last year despite the summer lull

Registered sales reached QAR 5.57 billion across 1,808 transactions between 1 July and 30 September (Exhibit 1). July recorded QAR 2.06 billion across 599 sales. August slowed to QAR 1.48 billion, as it does most summers, and September recovered to QAR 2.04 billion across 671 sales, the busiest month of the quarter. July’s total came despite four working days without registrations, from 13 to 16 July, when government offices closed for national mourning after the passing of His Highness the Father Emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani.⁶ Registrations averaged about QAR 425 million a week.

Against last year the comparison is favorable. Registered sales were 7.7% higher than the QAR 5.17 billion of the third quarter of 2025, and sales of land, houses and buildings 9.7% higher, at QAR 4.90 billion against QAR 4.47 billion. The gain came in July and August, which were 19.7% higher than a year earlier; September, at QAR 1.75 billion, was 5% below a strong September 2025. The quarter’s total was 9% below the QAR 6.1 billion of the second quarter, which ended before the summer break.

Where buyers bought

Doha recorded QAR 2.0 billion of sales, 36% of the quarter’s value, and Al Rayyan QAR 1.3 billion, or 24% (Exhibit 2).⁷ Al Daayen, home to Lusail, followed with QAR 828 million but ranked second by number of sales, with 372, because much of its activity is in smaller apartment sales. Al Wakra recorded QAR 628 million across 291 sales and Umm Slal QAR 497 million across 141.

The average sale was about QAR 3.8 million in Doha and QAR 3.9 million in Al Rayyan, against about QAR 2.2 million in Al Wakra and Al Daayen. The mix differed too. Villas and land made up more than three-quarters of value in Al Rayyan and 95% in Umm Slal, apartments more than a quarter in Al Daayen, and commercial property and residential buildings more than a third in Doha. Al Khor and Al Thakhira, Al Shamal and Al Sheehaniya together accounted for less than 5% of value.

Within Doha, value clustered in a handful of zones (Exhibit 3). Zone 66, which includes The Pearl and Legtaifiya, recorded QAR 429 million, about a fifth of the municipality’s total. Umm Lekhba followed with QAR 159 million, mostly residential plots, and Al Sadd with QAR 156 million, most of it from a single QAR 130 million building.

Old Airport recorded QAR 126 million, more than half of it in whole residential buildings, and Al Thumama QAR 124 million, all of it villas and residential plots. Together the five zones accounted for almost half of Doha’s registered value. In Al Rayyan, the zone that includes Al Waab and Al Aziziya led with QAR 489 million, followed by the zone that includes Ain Khaled and Bu Hamour with QAR 346 million.

At district level, Al Wukair in Al Wakra led by both value and number of sales, with 210 sales worth QAR 347 million at a median of QAR 1.2 million, more than half of them residential plots (Exhibit 4). The Pearl followed by value, with QAR 331 million across 114 sales, 111 of them apartments, and Lusail 69 by number, with 155 sales at a median of QAR 1.0 million, almost all of them apartments.

These three districts carried half of the leading districts’ sales but just over a third of their value. Districts with fewer but larger deals, such as Al Waab and Ain Khaled, sit at the other end of the range, with medians of about QAR 2.7 million and QAR 3.0 million. Across the 11 districts, villas and land made up two-thirds of value and apartments a fifth.

What buyers bought

Villas and houses were the largest category, at QAR 2.2 billion across 663 sales, or 40% of value, followed by residential land at QAR 1.6 billion across 627 sales, or 29% (Exhibit 5). Apartments added QAR 663 million, commercial and mixed-use property QAR 575 million, and whole residential buildings QAR 522 million.

Villa sales were led by Al Rayyan and Doha, at QAR 692 million and QAR 643 million, while land sales spread across five municipalities. Apartments were concentrated in Doha and Al Daayen, which together took 79% of apartment value, mostly on The Pearl and in Lusail. Doha also took about two-thirds of the value of both commercial property and residential buildings.

Commercial and mixed-use property changed hands in 59 registered sales worth QAR 575 million, 40 of them in Doha, led by whole buildings in established districts such as Al Sadd, Fereej Bin Mahmoud and Al Aziziya.

Most of the market’s depth lies in mid-sized deals. The median sale was QAR 2.1 million, and 73% of sales were below QAR 3 million (Exhibit 6). At the other end, 25 sales of QAR 20 million or more carried 17% of value, led by the Al Sadd building, a QAR 122 million residential complex in Al Waab and a QAR 73 million plot in Umm Slal Ali.

Median sale sizes by category tell the same story: QAR 2.7 million for villas, QAR 1.9 million for residential land and QAR 1.4 million for apartments, against QAR 5.1 million for commercial property and QAR 5.9 million for residential buildings. A market led by households in this way may be less sensitive to rising rates than one driven by leveraged investors, which may help explain why volumes held up as financing costs rose.

Villa prices eased slightly while land prices rose

Registered prices per square meter rose on the year in most municipalities (Exhibit 7). In the Ministry of Justice register the median villa sold for QAR 4,780 per square meter of plot, 2% less than a year earlier and 3% less than in the second quarter. The median rose in five of the six main municipalities, so the national dip partly reflects the mix of villas sold; Doha was the exception, 2% lower. Residential land sold for a median of QAR 3,551 per square meter, up 18% on the year and 10% on the quarter.⁸

Villa prices rose 11% in Al Wakra, 9% in Umm Slal, 6% in Al Daayen and 4% in Al Khor, held level in Al Rayyan and slipped 2% in Doha. Land prices rose by almost a quarter in Al Rayyan and Al Khor, 11% in Umm Slal and 8% in Doha and Al Daayen, but fell 6% in Al Wakra. The QCB’s real estate price index eased 0.7% in August, to 241.4.⁹ With volumes holding up, the dip in villa prices looks more like a market digesting earlier gains than the start of a correction.

Apartments diverged. On The Pearl the median apartment sold for QAR 13,546 per square meter, 5% more than a year earlier, and the median rent held at QAR 10,000 a month. In Lusail 69 the median fell 18%, to QAR 10,290, and the median rent was 8% lower, at QAR 6,750.¹⁰ A year ago the two districts sold at almost the same price per square meter; Lusail 69 is now about a quarter cheaper. Larger units in this quarter’s sales, a median of 92 square meters against 85, may explain part of the gap, but softer rents point to a district still absorbing recent supply.

Leasing slowed while rents held

Aqarat registered 32,003 lease contracts in the third quarter, 2.5% fewer than in the second quarter and 4.0% fewer than a year earlier (Exhibit 8).¹¹ Apartments accounted for 61% of contracts and villas for 23%; shops and offices together made up 14%.

Apartment leases fell 5.7% on the year and office leases 5.2%, while villa leases rose 1.1% and shop leases 8.1%. By location, leasing fell 6% in Doha and Al Wakra and 4% in Al Rayyan but rose 8% in Al Daayen and Umm Slal. Renewals were level with a year earlier, at about 5,300 contracts or 16.5% of the total, so the fall came almost entirely from new lettings.

The shortfall opened up in September (Exhibit 9). July ran slightly below last year and August was busier for every property type, but September fell short of last year’s back-to-school surge.

Apartment contracts in September were 21% below September 2025, villa contracts 9%, and shop and office contracts 17%. A single month is a thin basis for judgment, but the pattern points to softer demand from new tenants after the summer.

Median rents were unchanged nationally, at QAR 4,500 a month for apartments and QAR 10,000 for villas, the same as a year earlier (Exhibit 10). Flat medians alongside lower volumes may suggest that landlords are holding rents and accepting slower lettings.

Villa rents rose 9% on the quarter in Doha, to QAR 12,000 a month, and 11% in Al Daayen, while Umm Slal fell 9%. Apartment rents rose 8% in Al Daayen and 6% in Al Rayyan but eased 4% in Al Wakra, where affordable stock is plentiful.

Unit size predicts rent less well than location (Exhibit 11). Where the register records bedrooms, the median one-bedroom apartment let for QAR 5,200 a month nationally, more than the median two-bedroom at QAR 4,300, because one-bedroom units are concentrated in the freehold districts, where rents are highest. Within a single district the expected gradient reappears: on The Pearl, median rents rise from QAR 8,000 for one bedroom to QAR 11,000 for two and QAR 13,500 for three.

Offices and shops

Registered office leasing fell to 1,767 contracts, 9% fewer than in the second quarter, and the median rent eased 6%, to about QAR 4,700 a month; it fell 8% in Doha but edged up 2% in Al Rayyan. Shop leasing held up better, at 2,765 contracts, 8% more than a year earlier, though the median rent slipped 5% on the quarter, to QAR 10,000.

Indicative yields: A range rather than a price

Gross yields here divide the annual median rent registered with Aqarat by the median sale price registered with the Ministry of Justice. The two registers are not matched to the same units, and none of the sources records condition, service charges or vacancy consistently. Aqarat’s lease records carry no usable unit size. Online listings do state a size, but it is not reliable: the unit actually let or sold is sometimes different from the one listed. The figures in Exhibit 12 are therefore indicative only and are not good enough to be relied upon for investment or valuation decisions; they describe the market and do not price any asset.

On registered evidence, villas yield about 3.7 to 5.1% gross, and apartments in the two main freehold markets more: about 6.3% on The Pearl and 8.0% in Lusail’s zone 69. Apartments earn more rent per riyal of capital than villas, partly because a villa’s price includes a large plot that its rent does not fully reflect.

Asking terms in online listings point lower in five of the eight segments, and the gap comes mainly from prices (Exhibit 13).¹² Asking prices for villas in Doha and Al Rayyan are about 2.2 and 1.8 times the registered medians, because listings lean toward newer and larger homes, while asking rents are only 9 to 42% higher.

Where listed and transacted stock look more alike, as for villas in Al Wakra, the two measures sit close together, at 3.9 and 4.3%. In Al Daayen and Umm Slal the opposite happens: listed rentals lean toward newer and larger villas, including Lusail’s waterfront homes, so asking rents run 43 to 127% above registered rents and asking yields come out higher.

Matched by number of bedrooms, with registered prices per square meter applied to the sizes stated in the listings, the two sources agree more closely, though the listed sizes are only a guide. On The Pearl, registered and asking yields for one- to three-bedroom apartments fall within 4.8 to 6.3%, and in Lusail’s zone 69 within 4.8 to 7.2%. Gross yields also overstate what an owner keeps: after service charges, maintenance, vacancy and management, net yields could be a quarter to two-fifths lower. Until the lease register records unit size consistently, any yield for Qatar is best read as a range.

Until the lease register records unit size consistently, any yield for Qatar is best read as a range.

Visitors steadied and hotel occupancy recovered over the summer

Visitor numbers steadied over the summer (Exhibit 14), at 285,000 in July, 303,000 in August and 276,000 in September, after arrivals fell to 63,000 in March.¹³ September arrivals were 1.0% above September 2025, though the third quarter as a whole was 5.5% below last year and the first nine months about a quarter lower.

Occupancy across hotels and hotel apartments rose to 61.5% in September, from 44.5% in April, at an average daily rate of QAR 361. It was 3 percentage points below September 2025, a narrower gap than the 5 points of August.¹⁴ The winter calendar should help. Formula 1 confirmed on 3 October that the Qatar Grand Prix will go ahead at Lusail from 27 to 29 November, and Qatar Tourism’s 2026–27 calendar lists more than 560 events.¹⁵

Visitors came increasingly from the region (Exhibit 15). GCC arrivals rose 13% on the year, led by Saudi Arabia, and made up 44% of the quarter’s arrivals against 36% a year earlier. Arrivals by land, across the Saudi border, rose 15% and arrivals by air fell 15%.¹⁶

Hotel results split by area (Exhibit 16). Revenue per available room in the third quarter was 7% below a year earlier across the market, but held level in Lusail and in Al Sadd and Al Rayyan. West Bay and hotel apartments added rooms faster than the market, so part of their fall in occupancy reflects new supply as well as fewer guests.

What could shape 2027

We expect the market to remain broadly steady into 2027 and to strengthen as gas exports resume. Our view rests on how three sets of forces, geopolitical, international and domestic, are likely to evolve, and on how each reaches the property market (Exhibit 17).

Geopolitical: Shipping sets the pace

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is the decisive variable. Hydrocarbons provide about 80% of government revenue, so the restart of LNG exports sets the pace for public spending, project awards and hiring, and through them for housing demand.¹⁷ LNG flows through the strait were still more than three-quarters below normal in September, at 21 cargoes against about 90 a month before the hostilities.¹⁸ QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on some deliveries to the end of November, and renewed attacks on tankers since late September make a quick return to normal unlikely.¹⁹ We assume, as the World Bank does, that export routes reopen gradually from the turn of the year and that the first North Field East train starts in the first half of 2027.

International: Money stays dearer for longer

The Federal Reserve’s median projection implies one more increase this year and no reduction in 2027.²⁰ With the riyal pegged to the dollar, the QCB is likely to follow, keeping financing costs above their 2025 levels. Energy prices pull the other way. Brent averaged about $114 a barrel in September, and the US Energy Information Administration expects about $84 in 2027, still enough to lift export revenue sharply once Qatari cargoes move.²¹ Visitor numbers, about a quarter below last year in the first nine months, should recover with flights and events.²²

Domestic: Household demand cushions the market

Domestic conditions are firmer. Real estate was the fastest-growing non-hydrocarbon activity in the second quarter, building permits rose 26% on the first quarter, and the World Bank expects inflation of 2.7% this year and the budget to move from a deficit of 7.1% of GDP in 2026 to a surplus of 3.2% in 2027.²³ Policy continues to widen the market. Law No. 13 of 2026 moves the regulation and licensing of real estate brokerage to Aqarat, and Cabinet Decision No. 21 of 2026 added the Simaisma project to the areas where non-Qataris may own property.²⁴

A recovery in two steps

Putting these forces together, we expect the recovery to come in two steps. Until export routes reopen, activity is likely to hold close to the pace of 2026: about QAR 5.0 billion to 6.0 billion of registered sales in the fourth quarter and QAR 5.0 billion to 6.5 billion a quarter in the first half of 2027, with prices broadly flat. As LNG exports resume and the first North Field East train comes on stream, public spending, hiring and visitor demand could lift sales toward QAR 5.5 billion to 7.0 billion a quarter in the second half, with villa and prime freehold prices perhaps 2 to 5% higher than today.

The recovery is unlikely to be even (Exhibit 18). Villas and residential land combine steady household demand with measured supply and look the most resilient. Apartments in newer districts, where supply is still being absorbed, and offices, which depend on project awards, are likely to lag. Hotels could recover first, helped by the winter season and the FIBA Basketball World Cup in Doha from 27 August 2027.

Six signposts we will watch

Each part of our view leaves a trail in data published weekly or monthly. We list six readings in the order in which they are likely to move:

1. Shipping and LNG exports. Twenty-one LNG cargoes passed through the strait in September. Force majeure lifted and transits returning toward normal would make us more positive; disruption well into 2027, more cautious.
2. Interest rates. The federal funds target range is 3.75 to 4.00% and the QCB’s repo rate 4.35%. Rates held after one more rise would fit our view; two or more further rises would not.
3. Weekly sales registrations. Registrations averaged about QAR 425 million a week in the third quarter. Several weeks above QAR 500 million would point to an earlier recovery, several below QAR 250 million to a weaker one.
4. Lease registrations. Aqarat registered about 10,700 contracts a month. More than 11,000 a month would signal firmer demand; fewer than 9,500, weaker.
5. Visitors and hotels. Occupancy above 70% through the winter would support our view of hotels; event postponements or occupancy below 55% would not.
6. Public spending and policy. New project awards, wider freehold areas or buyer incentives would make us more positive; further spending cuts or delayed reforms, more cautious.

The dates to watch are the Federal Reserve decisions of 28 October and 9 December, which the QCB usually follows within days; the Qatar Grand Prix from 27 to 29 November, when the current LNG force majeure also runs out; the first North Field East train in the first half of 2027; and the FIBA Basketball World Cup in Doha from 27 August to 12 September 2027.

---

Qatar’s property market has absorbed higher interest rates, a collapse in gas exports and a sharp fall in visitors without a broad fall in prices or registered activity. That resilience reflects a market led by households and owner-occupiers more than by leveraged investors, and a run of policy reforms that continues to widen it.

Because the pace of recovery in 2027 depends mostly on forces outside the property market, we would watch the signposts above more closely than any single month of sales. The quarter’s evidence suggests that villas, land and established freehold districts have held their value best, while newer apartment districts and offices are still absorbing supply. Leaders planning for 2027 may find it useful to test their plans against the timing of export routes reopening rather than against a single quarter’s results.